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If you like large cities, stay here

San Ramon and Danville both expected to grow in population, jobs

For those of us who like living in a large metropolitan area that's probably going to get much more crowded, this is apparently the places to stay.

A recent report prepared for the Association of Bay Area Governments and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission suggests that this region is anticipated to grow by more than 2 million people, from about 7,350,000 today in the Bay Area to about 9,430,000 by the year 2035. This population growth would require around 902,000 new housing units with Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara counties taking the lion's share of growth.

San Ramon will see continued growth, adding 36,682 homes to its current stock of 22,061 for a 66.3 percent gain by 2035 if these two agencies and the state's Regional Housing Need Allocation agency have their way. But Danville appears to get a break in this housing frenzy, being asked by ABAG, the MTC, the state's Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) formula and the its Housing and Community Development agency (HCD) to boost the town's housing stock by only 8 percent to 17,920.

Pleasanton's current number of 24,034 apartments and homes would increase by 32.9 percent to 33,819. That would amount to a growth in housing units of 9,785 by 2035, or a 40.7 percent increase according to the IVS report.

Livermore, who will have to add 12,138 new housing units, will see a 42.3 percent growth to a 2035 total of 40,801 homes, whereas much smaller -- yet faster-growing Dublin -- will see the number of its homes and apartments increasing by a whopping 107 percent to 32,216 units, up nearly 17,000 from today's 15,572.

The housing scenario is coupled with major increases in total jobs in much of the region. By 2035, a 38.6 percent increase in the jobs sector is projected for Contra Costa County. Alameda County would see a 37 percent increase with similar jumps in San Mateo County (37 percent), San Francisco (31 percent)and Santa Clara County (44 percent).

In terms of housing, the Bay Area's large cities of San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland and Fremont will still be the top four by a wide margin in 2035 with San Jose growing by another 43 percent to pass the 1 million population mark and stay well ahead of San Francisco.

Santa Clara County, in fact, is projected to add another 254,000 housing units by 2035, a 41.3 percent increase that is far above the other eight counties that are part of the IVS report. Besides Santa Clara, the counties IVS counts as being part of the Bay Area are Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Solano and Sonoma. Altogether, ABAG and the MTC want to see these nine counties growing by 33.8 percent -- or 903,000 more homes and apartments -- to a housing total of 3.6 million.

Officials are quick to point out that many obstacles stand in the way of ABAG and the MTC's effort to achieve its household and jobs gains, including transportation, sewer and school capacities.

These agencies agree that Initial Vision Scenario, prepared to meet a 2008 state law requiring a 25-year plan for a "Sustainable Communities Strategy," is just a start. Public hearings are planned to better define the plan and its blueprint for future city and county growth.

Comments

Posted by Julia, a resident of Alamo
on Jun 27, 2011 at 10:36 am

What a wonderful thought. Have a job in San Jose and live in Danville or Alamo. Need to be at work at 8:00am. Get up at 3:00am...shower etc, etc. Leave the house at 4:30am and join the 300,000 plus vehicles on I-680 South. Get to work at 7:45am. Leave work at 5:30pm or so. Get home at 9:30pm...say hi to your wife and children. Eat something and say goodnight to your wife and children.

What a wonder life.

No thank you, life is so short, why make it shorter.

Work at home if you can find it.

Thanks, Julia from Alamo


Posted by Nick, a resident of Blackhawk
on Jun 27, 2011 at 2:30 pm

Julia whatever ... really ignorant, lame set of comments! Who needs 1.5hr to get ready and then 3:15hr to drive to SJ.

I live in Blackhawk and work in SJ ... no complains. Very flexible hours, 45min commute each way. Enjoy best of both worlds Silicon Valley and Blackhawk.

You probably have a very junior, quite unimportant position in your company, that's why you work from home and are not required in the office.


Posted by [removed], a resident of Alamo
on Jun 28, 2011 at 7:46 am

Dear Editor,

As you review the reports referenced in your coverage of ABAG/MTC press releases you will see a series of assumptions based on extensive growth in technology and other advanced industry markets. The trend is opposite to those assumptions and most major companies have their technology development and operations out of state and out of the country. More importantly, companies such a CISCO are becoming barometers for the obsolescence of core technologies that are the basis of bar area technology companies.

The second assumption is that our past centers of technology and industrial growth will continue to be destinations into the future. Silicon Valley is a verb for the rapid innovation and commercialization of advanced technologies and that is not located in the Santa Clara Valley now or will it be in the future. Typically, like Apple, the major companies, their company portfolios, and the start-ups produce in Asia using known technologies driven by application software or processes. As a result, we will see decline in corporate HQs and more advancements in Oregon, New York (Albany), Arizona, Texas (Austin) and certainly in Asia.

There are obvious political reasons for such assumptions based on federal funding of projects in our greater bay area. Bay area governments need federal moneys so they create statistics to justify such funding. What is more likely is a near-term decline in bay area population, an over-supply of housing and a continuing flat-line for jobs. As the economy recovers in 3-5 years, industry growth will be outward and based on new technologies and markets far away from the now-absent silicon technologies and the overabundance of dot-com software in the inner bay.


Posted by Ann, a resident of Danville
on Jun 28, 2011 at 11:39 am

I also commute to San Jose, and have flexible work hours. I can leave home at 8am and be at work by 9am generally - only need 45 minutes to get ready (that includes getting the kids out of the door....). I leave between 4.30 and 5 (or earlier if they have baseball and what nots) and I am home with the kids by 6 pm.... dinner is served between 6.30pm and 7 pm....... I work from home a couple of days a month as needed. Would love to have a job closer to home, but I love my current job, not sure if shorter commute alone is enough to entice me to leave.


Posted by C. R. Mudgeon, a resident of Danville
on Jun 28, 2011 at 1:50 pm

I agree to some extent with the comment above that the job growth in the Bay Area will not be nearly as large as projected. The critical mass of technical expertise in the area, as well as the presence of VC firms and schools such as Stanford and UC-Berkeley, will ensure that the Bay Area remains a great place to start a company. But the dismal business climate in California will ALSO insure that most companies will elect to grow elsewhere, to the extent possible. My concern is that the moving out of businesses will havd a greater impact than the starting-up of new companies, and that there will little or no job growth (or even net job loss). Good for traffic, but not good for the economy... Perhaps one of these days our elected officials will realize that punishing business at every opportunity does not lead to a robust economy.


Posted by [removed], a resident of Alamo
on Jun 28, 2011 at 2:41 pm

Dear Editor,

There is an excellent point in this exchange about the progression of start-up companies established by venture, strategic, and private equity capital groups. They are short-term investments planned with an exit strategy at 15 to 27 months. Various technology source funding focuses technologies in start-up to be sold to global corporations or to be further sold to global investors for location in Asia. At present, Asian venture trusts are bringing capital to our bay area through capital groups, as distribution, to mature such technologies to commercial products for production in other states and in Asia.

In the past 18 months, various technologists have been moved by source capital to other states, Canada and Asia to pursue funded development of technology start-ups so they can progress through the commercialization stage and be acquired by global corporations as successful product subsidiaries. Certainly, various internet-related companies remain in our bay area but more and more these companies are being acquired in consolidation of an industry that is shaking out its hardware and applications.

Applying that reality to traditional business and technology centers in the bay area, it is reality that we will see turn-over in new businesses rather than a growing number of businesses emerging from start-up. Reuters financial reporting has documented this reality and the overall consolidation that will shrink local job creation and population in our inner bay. Interestingly, some longer term commercial start-ups in transportation, healthcare/medical device, communications and energy will emerge in the outlying corridors leading to and in our central valley.

It should make an excellent story when our area neighbors find themselves commuting EAST rather than south and west.


Posted by Bob, a resident of Danville
on Jul 1, 2011 at 9:49 am

Somehow I don't see Google, Apple, Cisco or Facebook and Groupon people commuting East. The Bay area and the coast have to much on the central valley that appeals to a lifestyle of a liberal, intelligent person seeking a nice JOB with fun stuff to do in the area.


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