http://danvillesanramon.com/print/story/print/2008/04/25/real-estate-review---first-quarter-2008


DanvilleSanRamon.com

Real Estate - April 25, 2008

Real Estate Review - First Quarter 2008

Home sales in Alamo, Blackhawk and Danville have slowed to about half when compared to the first quarter of 2007. However prices have not declined precipitously in any of the three communities. Among the three, Danville has been impacted the most on all measures of price. Alamo appears to be showing the greatest resistance to price decline, and Blackhawk appears to be demonstrating the greatest resistance to unit sales decline.

As of this writing, 96 Alamo properties are listed as active, 20 homes are pending sales, and 20 properties have sold. Through the first 2008 quarter - Jan. 1-March 31 - only 18 single family detached homes have sold, compared to 35 sold homes in the first quarter of 2007. This represents a (-49.6 percent) decrease in unit sales for single family detached homes.

Average selling price in Q1 of 2007 was $1,558,365. Average selling price in Q1 '08 is $1,650,468 for a 5.9 percent increase in average selling price. Average price paid per square foot in Q1 '07 was $473 while the average price per square foot paid in Q1 '08 was $470 for slightly less than 1 percent decline in price. Median price in 2007 was $1,415,000. It was 11 percent higher in Q1 '08 at $1,575,000. Given the small number of homes that sold in Q1 '08, the square foot price is probably a better representation of market reality.

Blackhawk is showing 66 properties listed as active, nine as sale pending, and 11 properties have actually sold. Through the first quarter Jan. 1-March 31, 2008, only 11 single family detached homes have sold, compared to 17 sold homes in the first quarter of 2007. This represents a 35 percent decrease in unit sales for single family detached homes. Average selling price in Q1 of 2007 was $1,367,064. Average selling price in Q1 '08 is $1,368,820 for virtually no change in average selling price. Average price paid per square foot in Q1 '07 was $397 while the average price per square foot paid in Q1 '08 was $401 for a slight (1 percent) increase in price. Median price in 2007 was $1,320,000. It was significantly (-11 percent) lower in Q1 '08 at $1,190,000. Given the small number homes that sold in Q1 '08, the average price is probably a reasonable representation of market reality.

Danville is showing 241 properties listed as active, 61 as sale pending, and 80 properties have actually sold. Through the first quarter Jan. 1-March 31, 2008, a total of 60 single family detached homes have sold, compared to 117 sold homes in the first quarter of 2007. This represents a (-49 percent) decrease in unit sales for single family detached homes. Average selling price in Q1 of 2007 was $1,118,244. Average selling price in Q1 '08 is $1,064,848 for a modest (-5 percent) decline in average selling price. Average price paid per square foot in Q1 '07 was $433 while the average price per square foot paid in Q1 '08 was $399, a significant (-8 percent) decrease in price paid per square foot. Median price in 2007 was $1,005,000. It was modestly (-5.5 percent) lower in Q1 '08 at $950,000. Depending on which measure you choose, Danville is exhibiting a notable but not alarming price decline in the neighborhood of -4-8 percent.

Given the daily bombardment of negative national real estate news, everyone living in Alamo, Blackhawk and Danville should feel pretty lucky. Although unit sales are down significantly from the first quarter of last year, homes are selling, prices are holding up relatively well, with Alamo and Blackhawk showing virtually no change and Danville showing a modest decline in price.

To receive a copy of our First Quarter Market Review with complete details, e-mail joecombs@thecombsteam.com and place First Quarter Market Review in the subject line, or call 989-6086. Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda Multiple Listing Service and other quoted sources. Joe and Nancy Combs, Remax and the MLS Service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.

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