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DanvilleSanRamon.com

Real Estate - September 5, 2008

Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville High End Market Review.

This month we will examine data for each of our important markets including Alamo, Blackhawk and Danville. This review will be limited to single family homes sold between Jan. 1 and Aug. 20 for both 2007 and 2008 and include only home sales of $2 million and above - "The High End Market."

A total of 70 homes are currently listed as active, pending or sold in Alamo as from Aug. 20, 2008. Fifty-six are listed as active; three are pending; and 11 are listed as sold. Fewer Alamo High End homes sold in the same time period (Jan. 1-Aug. 20) in 2008 than sold in 2007. Eleven homes sold in 2008 compared to 29 in 2007 for about a 62 percent decrease in unit sales. Remarkably, average sales price shows a slight decline in the same year-on-year comparison, dropping from $2,797,618 in '07 to $2,755,353 in '08. This represents only a 1.5 percent price decline. Price paid per square foot followed suit, dropping from $558 in '07 to $521 in this time period, reflecting a more marked decline of 6.6 percent. The current unsold inventory of 56 homes carries an average price tag of $3,338,765 and an average square foot price of $607 or 16.5 percent more than current sold properties.

A total of 27 homes are currently listed as active, pending or sold in Blackhawk. Unit sales of homes in Blackhawk also declined from 12 in 2007 to six homes in 2008 for a 50 percent decrease in unit sales. Like Alamo, average purchase price in Blackhawk declined from $2,429,041 to $2,201,666 in 2008 reflecting a 9 percent decline in average purchase price. These declines are also reflected in price paid per square foot. On average, Blackhawk High End Homes sold at $475 per square foot in '07 dropping to $440 per square foot in Jan. 1-Aug. 20, 2008, for a 7.4 percent decline. The current unsold inventory in Blackhawk carries an average list price of $4,061,578 and an average per square foot price of $625 or about 41 percent more than the current sold price. This represents a very significant disconnect in seller expectations from the market reality and will ultimately lead to a slowing of sales if not corrected to reflect current market pricing.

A total of 54 homes are currently listed as active, pending or sold in the Town of Danville. Paralleling both Alamo and Blackhawk in unit sales decline, Danville fell from 13 High End sales in 2007 to six sold in the same time period in 2008 for a 54 percent drop in unit sales. Interestingly enough, Danville's High End Market defied the trend of decline on an average price comparison. Average price paid in 2007 was $2,618,653 compared to $2,675,000 in 2008, for about a 2 percent increase. Price paid per square foot also increased from '07 to '08 from $520 per square foot in 2007 to $531 per square foot in 2008, matching the average price increase of 2 percent. The current unsold inventory of High End Homes in Danville carries a list price of $2,910,369 and an average square foot price of $651 or about 22.6 percent more than the price paid for homes sold thus far in 2008.

Among these three local market areas, 103 properties are listed as active and 30 have either sold or are currently pending sale. Through August of this year it would appear, roughly, that 3.75 High End Homes are selling per month leaving the market awash with 27.5 months worth of unsold inventory of High End Homes. It will be interesting to observe what changes occur in inventory, price and rate of sales in the coming months. Please keep reading our column and we will find out together.

To receive a copy of our High End Market Review including the raw data, e-mail joecombs@thecombsteam.com with "High End Market Review" in the subject line. For a free comparative market analysis to determine your home's market value, please give us a call.

Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda Multiple Listing Service and other quoted sources. Joe and Nancy Combs, Remax and the MLS Service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.

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