http://danvillesanramon.com/print/story/print/2008/12/26/alamo-blackhawk-danville-real-estate-2008-near-end-review


DanvilleSanRamon.com

Real Estate - December 26, 2008

Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville Real Estate 2008: 'Near End Review'

With almost the full year of 2008 behind us, as of Dec. 20, 2008, we wanted to examine this year's data for each of our important markets, including Alamo, Blackhawk and Danville. This "Near End" review will be limited to single family homes sold between Jan. 1 and Dec. 20 for both 2007 and 2008. Homes that transferred hands without a reported purchase price are included in the unit sales counts but are excluded from statistical analysis.

There are currently 221 single family homes listed as active pending and sold in Alamo. Ninety-one single family homes are listed as active and, encouragingly, 14 are listed as pending. Significantly fewer Alamo single family homes sold in 2008 than sold in the same time period in 2007. One hundred sixty-nine homes sold in 2007 compared to 116 in 2008 for a -31 percent decline in unit sales. Average sales price shows a much lower decline in the same year-to-year comparison dropping from $1,685,560 in '07 to $1,544,194 in '08. This represents a -8 percent price decline. Price paid per square foot followed suit, dropping from $506 in '07 to $465 in the same time period matching the average price decline of -8 percent. Alamo's current median price for sold listings stands at $1,340,995.

There are currently 125 single family homes listed as active pending and sold in Blackhawk. Fifty-nine are listed as active, and four are pending sale. Unit sales in Blackhawk declined from 88 sold in 2007 to 62 sold in 2008 for a -29 percent drop in unit sales. Average price declined significantly in 2008 slipping from $1,561,932 in 2007 to $1,375,189 in 2008 for a -12 percent average price decline. Average price paid per square foot for a Blackhawk home dropped from $441 to $394 per square foot from '07 to '08 for a -11 percent decline. Blackhawks' current median price for sold listings stands at $1,182,500, about 12 percent below Alamo's current median price.

Unit sales of homes in Danville decreased most significantly from 450 in 2007 to 192 in '08 for a dramatic -57 percent and by far the largest percent decline in unit sales. Interestingly, average price declines were notably less for Danville than for either the Alamo or Blackhawk markets. Average price declined -7 percent, falling from $1,141,668 in 2007 to $1,030,594 in 2008. Price paid per square foot declined from $430 paid per square foot in 2007 to $375 per square foot in 2008 for -13 percent drop in price. The 25 current pending sales are listed at $345 per square foot, suggesting further price erosion. Danville's current median price for sold listings stands at $815,000.

I think it is fair to say that 2008 has not been a great year for real estate investments. Perhaps we are not falling as fast or as far as other markets have, however, we have indeed fallen. Unfortunately, the data is not a crystal ball into the future and the question remains, "Are we at the bottom or will we see further declines in price in the months ahead?" Please keep reading our column and we will find out together.

If you would like to receive a copy of our "Near End Review" including the raw data, please e-mail joecombs@thecombsteam.com; include "Near End" in the subject line.

Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda Multiple Listing Service and other quoted sources. Joe and Nancy Combs, Remax and the MLS Service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.

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