Town Square

College-level Math 1, Electoral edition

Original post made by Tom Cushing, Danville, on Sep 26, 2012

As the campaigns take shape in late September and the so-called “low-interest” voters (who may decide the outcome – what a comfort that is!) finally tune-in to them, it’s time to take a look at how the Electoral College numbers add-up.

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Posted by Rick Pshaw
a resident of Danville
on Sep 27, 2012 at 9:55 am

It's certainly within ethical standards to shop for the best polling data for your candidate, but if you're "seeking accuracy" then a source closely tied to the NYT is not your best choice.

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Posted by Chris
a resident of Danville
on Sep 27, 2012 at 12:23 pm

I suggest everyone read Dick Morris' analysis of the poll numbers. Quite revealing. The MSM and this columnist are in the tank for Obama who thinks the death of Americans is a "bump in the road." Romney bumper stickers guarantee your car will be vandalized--thus so few seen on the roads. The sleeping giant is alive and well.

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Posted by Ann
a resident of Danville
on Sep 27, 2012 at 2:03 pm

Darn, I really do want a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker on my car, but I have to admit that I worry about who will ultimately trash our car or even hurt our children when they're driving it.

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Posted by Citizen Paine
a resident of Danville
on Sep 27, 2012 at 2:29 pm

Regarding all that missing Rmoney regalia -- have you ever heard of Occam's Razor? Don't worry, Occam is long-since dead, and he never did wield a razor against anybody's bumper sticker -- rather, it is a principle that goes something like this: if you have to choose between a simple explanation and one that depends on numerous or preposterous assumptions, choose the simple one.

Applying that logic here: we may account for the absence of GOP bumper stickers this season because of either:

1 -- flagging support for the serially incompetent campaign of a stumble/mumble candidate that nobody really wanted, but who was the best of an awful bunch of choices, or

2 -- fear of roving bands of swarthy, head-ragged vandals with sharp objects in their hands, rage in their hearts and mayhem on their minds ...

... Choose number 1.

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Posted by Tom Cushing
a resident of Alamo
on Sep 28, 2012 at 6:34 am

@ Chris: here's another perspective on the accuracy of polling from blogger Kevin Drum, which includes a weblink to the Dick Morris explanation to which you referred. Anyone who believes the NYT would rather comfort the Left than be right might want to take a look at it: Web Link

He concludes:

"Neither side has a monopoly on sloppy number crunching or wishful thinking, but liberals, faced with a reality they didn't like [in 2004], ended up accepting reality and deciding to learn more about it. That's the Nate Silver approach. Conservatives, faced with a reality they didn't like, invented a conspiracy theory to explain it and then produced an alternate reality more to their liking. It's a crude and transparently glib reality, but that's apparently what the true believers want."

And Rick, let me save you the trouble of labeling the source of Mr. Drum's analysis unreliable -- it is Mother Jones.

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Posted by Dave
a resident of Danville
on Sep 28, 2012 at 10:25 am

Seriously, Dick Morris? The whore-chasing, toe-sucking, attention hound?

He long ago exhausted his 15 minutes of fame, and it wasn't flattering.