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Local economy has a bright future, economist says

Original post made on Jan 23, 2013

Business owners and those interested in finance got an inside look at the future on Friday along with pleasant news about the Bay Area's economy, as Bay Area Council Chief Economist Jon Haveman spoke to members of the Danville Area Chamber of Commerce.

Read the full story here Web Link posted Tuesday, January 22, 2013, 5:49 PM

Comments (8)

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Posted by George
a resident of Alamo
on Jan 23, 2013 at 6:42 am

What a joke! The next few years look "unsure"... but the 10-15 year horizon looks "positive"?... and this equates to a "bright future"? Admittedly, our local economy may stay ahead of the national curve due to local tech companies... unless they decide to flee Cali's ever increasing punitive taxes. Nationally, our economy will remain "sunk" under the continuing spending binge of the Obama administration and it's failure to deal with the structual components of entitlement programs which will only sink our economy deeper into the abyss. The national debt and annual deficit will not allow our economy to flourish... and continuing to hide from the problem and "kick the can down the street" only makes the situation worse. So, Danville Express, continue with your rosie articles that gloss over the debt/deficit problem. The American press has become nothing but a lap dog for the Obama administration by running interference for its continuing failure to provide sensible, economic leadership. Good dog.

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Posted by Another Failed Politician
a resident of Walnut Creek
on Jan 23, 2013 at 9:57 am

Well said George.

Economists for the Bay Area Council (and similarly others) have no choice but to be positive. They are paid for pure "public relations" and must try and show the best outlook they can. They twist the numbers and economics for the sole purpose of being positive. It's in their job description.

Get a clue people.

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Posted by Louise
a resident of Danville
on Jan 23, 2013 at 10:56 am

I don't know where this economist got his figures, but Contra Costa does not have the highest median home price in the country. It is beat out by Marin County. Also, just because people seem to be spending now because we live in an affluent area, wait until they have to pay their high state and federal income taxes - for high earners it will be a total of 63%! High earners will feel the pinch when they do their taxes in 2014 when the Affordable Health Care tax of 3.8% hits and the additonal dividend tax hits too. So far it may seem ok, but if government spending continues on the same path and California continues to raise taxes the middle class will feel it too. And retail is doing well! What about all the empty retail space in Danville? I guess he didn't take a look around. This economist did not talk about higher income taxes and how this would effect the local economy and spending habits of the affluent. It was a paid political announcement by a paid political shill.

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Posted by Sylence Dugood
a resident of Danville
on Jan 23, 2013 at 12:40 pm

Excellent points...I suggest that we take a hard look at entitlements as a first priority. A recent scholarly paper by Wang et al. (Lancet 2012; 380: 2071–94) clearly presents and rigorously defends sound predictions that by sometime in 2015 we will, for the first time in recorded history, have more above the age of 65 presented and accounted then those below the age of 5. A predicament nonetheless. Given that it is a well recognized position in the healthcare industry that, on average, all of us over 65 utilize our healthcare system nearly 7-times more (or to a greater extent) then those under 5. More so, for those in the business, the ratio that is closely tracked is the number of 'economically active' (i.e. FTEs) to those that are 'retired' (definition varies but for the sake of argument let's just consider those on the Federal SS role-call). By most estimates, this ratio will be less than unity within a generation. To drive numbers, depending on your sources, the worldwide healthcare market (in developed nations specifically) is on the order of $5.5 TRILLION. This number, depending again on your sources and who you believe, is projected to grow to $8 TRILLION by 2022. Remember these numbers are not necessarily deficits but are market projections. Heck of a bill for medicare given that most of us paid pennies in past decades but draw dollars today.

So given that many who take the time to post during the day (isn't this better than doing it over bridge or pinochle?) are in the non-economically active category, why not take a glass half-full approach and afford the 'economically' active a little HOPE for a more prosperous tomorrow?

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Posted by Dave
a resident of Danville
on Jan 24, 2013 at 1:32 pm

Actually, the budget deficit has been shrinking in absolute dollars each year under President Obama and the federal budget (amount we spend) has been shrinking as a percentage of GDP each year. It's not that spending is increasing too much. It's that the economy is still stalled and we are not raising the revenue that we used to raise.

That said, we do need to trim the defense budget as those two sorry wars are coming to an end, and as we (hopefully) realize that the U.S. doesn't need to be (and can't afford to be) the sole policeman of the entire world. Should be some decent savings there.

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Posted by Ben Bernanke's better-looking brother
a resident of another community
on Jan 25, 2013 at 10:35 am

Why all the doom-n-gloom, chicken-littles? Do these numbers look bad to you?

Unemployment rates for December, 2012:

Danville: 4.3 percent
Dublin: 5 percent
Livermore: 5.3 percent
Pleasanton: 4.1 percent
San Ramon: 3.4 percent

They may be helped a tenth or so by seasonal retail, but they seem to show that the sky is very much in-place.

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Posted by Joe
a resident of San Ramon
on Jan 25, 2013 at 9:51 pm

Life in San Ramon is good.

Posted by Name hidden
a resident of Monte Vista High School

on Jun 5, 2017 at 4:30 am

Due to repeated violations of our Terms of Use, comments from this poster are automatically removed. Why?

Sorry, but further commenting on this topic has been closed.

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